Stock Market Report - July 2017

Posted by Michael Berlin on August 6, 2017 - 3:48pm

The stock market reacted favorably in July to strong second quarter earnings.  Despite this earnings picture and the positive effects of low interest rates, my outlook remains cautious and conservative primarily because of elevated valuations (both on a bottom-up basis and using various reliable broader measures such as cyclically adjusted price earnings, price/revenue, and market capitalization/gross domestic product).  I am also worried about Fed tightening, narrow leadership, performance dispersion, and especially complacency, as the volatility index recently was the lowest in

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